前三季度，随着公积金贷款、税费调整等利好政策效应的逐渐显现，全省房地产开发企业商品房销售面积保持较快增长态势，但由于土地市场低迷、到位资金不足、库存压力大、大项目收尾等多重因素的持续影响，房地产开发企业投资意愿继续降低，全省房地产开发投资再次出现负增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

一、运行基本情况

（一）完成投资增速再次出现负增长。

1-9月，全省房地产开发完成投资1621.42亿元，比上年同期下降1.3%，增速继1-5月后再次出现今年以来的负增长，增速比上年同期回落16.9个百分点，比上半年回落2.7个百分点，比一季度回落7.8个百分点。其中，住宅投资988.31亿元，下降3.2%；办公楼投资107.37亿元，下降4.3%；商业营业用房投资370.31亿元，增长13.3%。全省房地产开发投资增速低于全国平均水平3.9个百分点，低于西部平均水平3.4个百分点。

（二）商品房销售面积保持较快增长。

1-9月，全省房地产开发企业商品房销售面积2413.47万平方米，比上年同期增长10.9%，增速比上年同期提高4.9个百分点，比上半年回落2.7个百分点，比一季度提高7.0个百分点，增速高于全国平均水平3.4个百分点，高于西部平均水平6.4个百分点。1-9月，全省房地产开发企业商品房屋销售额1063.53亿元，比上年同期增长12.3%，增速比上年同期提高4个百分点，比上半年回落4.4个百分点，比一季度提高4.5个百分点。

（三）施工面积低速增长。

1-9月，全省房屋施工面积19986.58万平方米，比上年同期增长3.7%。其中，住宅13148.90万平方米，增长0.4%；办公楼764.86万平方米，增长10.5%；商业营业用房3410.17万平方米，增长16.3%。

（四）竣工面积比上年同期下降。

1-9月，全省房屋竣工面积1559.64万平方米，比上年同期下降21.4%。其中，住宅1196.05万平方米，下降19.3%；办公楼49.38万平方米，增长47.4%；商业营业用房233.34万平方米，下降7.7%。

（五）到位资金仍然负增长。

1-9月，全省房地产开发企业到位资金1672.12亿元，比上年同期下降4.1%，延续了1-5月以来的负增长态势，降幅比上半年扩大1.6个百分点。其中，国内贷款181.24亿元，下降7.1%；自筹资金701.88亿元，下降4.1%；其他资金788.15亿元，下降3.1%。

二、需关注问题

（一）房地产开发投资增速持续低于全国平均水平。

今年3月份以来，全省房地产开发投资增速持续低于全国平均水平，出现这种情况是近年来少有的，究其原因，除了全国房地产调控宏观环境的影响，主要是我省在前几年大盘开发突出造成基数过高，再加之目前资金保障困难、库存压力大等因素的影响。

图一 2014年1-9月以来贵州房地产开发投资增速与全国比较

（二）房地产开发投资对全省固定资产投资增长的贡献率持续降低。

房地产开发投资增速持续低迷使得对全省投资增长贡献明显下降。1-9月，全省房地产开发完成投资占固定资产完成投资（500万口径）的比重为24.9%，比重比上年同期下降6.0个百分点，比一季度和上半年分别下降5.7个和2.7个百分点。对全省固定资产投资的贡献率由上年同期的21.8%下降到-1.8%，同时贡献率分别比一季度、上半年分别回落11.7个和3.9个百分点。

图二 2015年各月房地产开发投资对全省投资贡献率比

（三）资金保障程度不断下降。

今年3月份以来，全省房地产开发企业到位资金增速持续低于完成投资增速，资金保障程度不断下降，1-9月，到位资金增速低于完成投资增速2.8个百分点。到位资金占房地产开发完成投资的比重为103.1%，较上年同期回落3.0个百分点，分别较一季度和上半年回落22.0和1.6个百分点。

图三 2015年1-9月全省房地产开发完成投资及到位资金增速

（四）土地市场持续低迷。

今年4月份以来，全省土地市场持续低迷，房地产开发企业土地购置费、土地购置面积、土地成交价款等指标均出现负增长，且降幅均有不同程度扩大。

1-9月，全省土地购置费87.86亿元，比上年同期下降21.4%，降幅比上年同期扩大9.7个百分点；土地购置面积430.54万平方米，下降42.4%，降幅比上年同期扩大34.2个百分点；土地成交价款60.07亿元，下降29.8%，降幅比上年同期扩大6.4个百分点。

图四 2015年1-9月全省房地产开发企业土地指标增速

（五）新开工项目面积降幅继续扩大。

1-9月，全省房屋新开工面积3323.26万平方米，比上年同期下降10.2%，降幅比上半年扩大4.9个百分点，增速比一季度下降11.4个百分点。

三、有关建议

（一）监测重点项目，着力关注资金缺口。

相关部门需进一步加强对项目的监测和管理力度，深入了解在建项目房地产开发企业融资难、销售不畅等重点问题，鼓励金融机构充分利用当前删除监管指标政策，继续拓宽房地产开发企业融资渠道，确保在建项目顺利竣工。

（二）释放购买潜力，积极消化库存。

以贯彻落实好省人民政府办公厅《关于做好政府购买棚户区改造服务工作的实施意见》为契机，着力提高棚户区改造货币化安置比例，进一步做好公积金贷款、税费调整等政策措施落实，提高消费者在商品房市场上的购买力，逐步消化商品房库存。

（三）科学规划土地供应，合理控制开发规模。

各地需充分考经济发展水平、人口数量、可支配收入、销售市场、库存数量等差异化因素，着眼长远、因地制宜、科学规划、统筹发展，合理控制房地产开发规模，进一步优化经济结构。